The United States federal government should substantially increase vehicle GHG emissions standards by including downstream electricity use and battery production based on a lifecycle assessment.
Lack of development risks war in every hotspot, goes nuclear—growth solves
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Council unclassified strategic assessment of global trends, authored by ODNI personnel including the Chairman of the NIC, THE NEAR FUTURE: TENSIONS ARE RISING, 2017, https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends/near-future
These global trends, challenging governance and changing the nature of power, will drive
provide public services. This has proved more difficult than expected to provide.
Squo is a terrible environment for battery innovation – pro-EV policy picks winners, disrupts demand certainty, and hinders innovation
PVMI, Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation @ UPenn Wharton, 1/6/17, When Will Electric Cars Go Mainstream?, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/when-will-electric-cars-go-mainstream/
John Paul MacDuffie, professor of management at Wharton, says battery technology has been
power, which would help electric vehicles realize their zero-emission potential.
Picking winners is bad – automobile sector innovation is uniquely driven by Red Queen dynamics – there is no correlation between R&D funding and successful innovation
- Berk Talay, PhD, Associate Professor of Marketing, UMass Lowell, and Janell D. Townsend, PhD, Hedi Fritz-Niggli Visiting Professor of Business at the University of Zurich, and an Associate Professor of Marketing and International Business in the School of Business Administration at Oakland University, 2015, Do or die: competitive effects and Red Queen dynamics in the product survival race, Ind Corp Change (2015) 24 (3): 721-738
The notion that innovation is an important driver of product success, firm competitiveness,
a competitive marketplace, as well as the diminishing returns relative to competitors.
Advanced batteries are moving to the market – but forcing competition with Li-ion batteries is key – transport sector key to penetration
William Tokash, Senior Research Aanalyst, and Anissa Dehamna, Navigant, 2016, Next-Generation Advanced Batteries, https://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/brochures/NGAB-16-Executive-Summary.pdf
Despite the progress made to date by commercially available lithium ion (Li-ion
revenue in 2019, rising to $1.4 billion in 2025.
Next gen batteries key to solve energy poverty and accelerate global development
Jeffrey Carbeck, Specialist Leader, Advanced Materials and Manufacturing, DC Innovations, Deloitte, World Economic Forum, June 23, 2016, “These next-generation batteries could end energy poverty”, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/next-generation-batteries/
Solar and wind power capacity have been growing at double-digit rates, but
between. So it is heartening to see the pace of progress quickening.
LCA key to advanced battery development – incentives are insufficient because they can’t solve leakage
- Nealer, Union of Concerned Scientists, and T.P. Hendrickson, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 2015, Review of Recent Lifecycle Assessments of Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Electric Vehicles, Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports, September, Volume 2, Issue 3, pp 66–73
Policies for Electric Vehicles
For emerging technologies like EVs, policy can serve as
as they develop and ensure the GHG emissions decrease with new technology advances.
Readiness solves every global conflict
Alan Dowd, senior fellow with the Sagamore Institute Center for America’s Purpose, Providence Magazine, December 31, 2015, “Shield & Sword: The Case for Military Deterrence”, https://providencemag.com/2015/12/shield-sword-the-case-for-military-deterrence/
Surely, the same principle applies in the realm of nations. Our world teems
concludes, “than certainty about who holds the upper hand.”[xvii]
Sustained blackouts wreck the insurance industry
(Insurance Journal, U.S. Power Grid Attack Could Cause $70 Billion Insurance Losses: Lloyd’s Report
A cyber attack on the U.S. power grid in the Northeast would
will require the sharing of cyber attack data and pooling of claims information.
Strong insurance industry stops extinction—key internal link to every aspect of society
(October, Vice President, Leeds Centre Branch-EFU Insurance, Importance of Insurance in Our Economy,
Insurance is a risk transfer mechanism whereby the individual or the business enterprise can shift
country also grows. So economy and insurance are interdependent upon each other.
Overly rapid EV integration causes grid disruption and peak demand spikes
Chris Nelder, Manager, Rocky Mountain Institute, June 15, 2016, It’s Time to Plan for Electric Vehicles on the Grid, blog.rmi.org/blog_2016_06_15_its_time_to_plan_for_evs_on_the_grid
If utilities and their regulators are not prepared for such a rapid expansion of the
hyperlocal, at the scales where grid-related issues will first emerge.
Emissions limits key to storage integration – the aff prevents demand spikes that destabilize generation
Garret Fitzgerald, PhD, Sr. Associate in the Electricity practices, Chris Nelder, and James Newcomb, 2016, Electric Vehicles as Distributed Energy Resources, Rocky Mountain Institute
Most areas of the U.S. are still at the low end of
their IRPs, is one way to ensure that appropriate planning is done.
CNA Military Advisory Board, advisory group of retired flag and general officers from the
Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, November, 2015, National Security and
Assured U.S. Electrical Power, https://www.cna.org
an open architecture, where new technologies can be “plug and play.”
EVs are about to enter into a period of extremely fast growth – slowing down demand is key to limit peak impact on the grid – the squo leads to reactive utility responses – the aff allows for longer-term investment that is able to manage innovation
Herman K. Trabish, The new EV playbook: How utilities can gain from the coming boom in electric vehicles, June 27, 2016, www.utilitydive.com/news/the-new-ev-playbook-how-utilities-can-gain-from-the-coming-boom-in-electri/421559/
Wisely expanded EV deployment will offer stakeholders two key grid services, Nelder said.
, meaning stakeholders in areas of high EV adoption need to plan now.
Key to deterrence credibility
(David, former Deputy Assistant Secrtary of Defense M.S. in Foreign Service, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy, “U.S. Extended Deterrence: How Much Strategic Force Is Too Little?,” Tailored Deterrence: Influencing States and Groups of Concern, ed. Schneider, P. 286-7)
Regardless of whether nuclear deterrence relies on offensive punitive measures, defensive systems or a
doubt on the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrent. 56
John P. Caves 10, Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University, “Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent”, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ada514285
Perceptions of a compromised U.S. nuclear deterrent as described above would have
above conceivable unless corrective steps are taken by the current administration and Congress.
Squo lithium supplies are sufficient to meet demand but EV penetration uniquely creates a massive supply shortage that producers can’t meet
James Stafford, Editor of Oil Price, August 24, 2016, Could a Lithium shortage De-Rail The Electric Car Boom?, oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Could-A-Lithium-Shortage-De-Rail-The-Electric-Car-Boom.html
We’ve gone electric, and there’s no going back at this point. Lithium is
for now this new demand is coming increasingly from the electric vehicle industry.
Lithium shortage coming – demand certainty key to investment and competitive markets that solve extraction
Thomas Biesheuvel, Bloomberg, citing various analysts, Lithium Frenzy Seen Ending in Tears as Bernstein Warns of Supply, October 10, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/lithium-frenzy-seen-ending-in-tears-as-bernstein-warns-of-supply
Lithium demand might be booming, but it’s future supply that investors should be concerned
start allocating capital to find more cost-effective ways to extract lithium.”
Status quo programs are re-investing in new lithium-6 reprocessing facilities
Frank Klotz ’16, Under Secretary for Nuclear Security and NNSA Administrator, served at the White House from 2001 to 2003 as the Director for Nuclear Policy and Arms Control on the National Security Council, MPhil in international relations and a DPhil in politics at Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar, “Statement of Lt. Gen. Frank G. Klotz, USAF (Ret.), Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, on the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Plan to Address Deferred Maintenance Before the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces House Committee on Armed Services,” 9/7/16, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS29/20160907/105267/HHRG-114-AS29-Wstate-KlotzF-20160907.pdf
With respect to lithium, NNSA has developed a strategy to increase the supply and
, and off-site capabilities to inform options for the path forward.
But, supply margins are empirically thin – any disruption makes it impossible to modernize the nuclear arsenal
Manoj G ’15, writer for DefenseWorld, internally cites the Government Accountability Office, 7/14/15, “Lithium Shortage Could Impede US Nuclear Weapons Program,” http://www.defenseworld.net/news/13449/Lithium_Shortage_Could_Impede_US_Nuclear_Weapons_Program#.WMx5LTsrKMp
Scarcity of lithium could impede the US’ plan to replace and expand its nuclear arsenal
that works for Congress and investigates how the federal government spends taxpayer dollars.
Federal, fuel-based LCA for electric vehicles is key – it’s a tech forcing mechanism – state policies directed at the car rather than its components fail
DeCiccio, research professor at the University of Michigan Energy Institute, ‘10
(John M., Vehicle Standards in a Climate Policy Framework, January, www.erb.umich.edu/Research/Initiatives/colloquiaPapers/VehicleStandardsJan%202010.pdf)
Problems with GHG Emissions Rates for Vehicle Standards
Vehicle GHG emissions rates can be evaluated on an end-use (“tailpipe”) basis or on a lifecycle (“well-to-wheels”) basis. An end-use basis misses the emissions associated with supplying fuel. For a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) such as a battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell car, essentially all impacts occur upstream during fuel production and distribution. Rating such vehicles as having zero GHG emissions is misleading and provides no incentive for efficiency. A direct basis is also problematic for biofuels if the “renewability shortcut,” which excludes CO2 emissions from biogenic carbon, is used (DeCicco 2009).
For these reasons, GHG standards are commonly defined on a lifecycle, or “carbon footprint,” basis. Compliance relies on CO2-equivalent gram-per-mile (gCO2e/mi) results from lifecycle analysis (LCA) models that account for vehicle use-phase emissions (and therefore fuel economy) plus fuel supply-phase emissions. Notably, vehicle supply-phase (manufacturing) emissions are not included in vehicle GHG standards as proposed to date, even though the regulated parties (automakers) arguably have more control over emissions from the production of their product than they do over the emissions associated with the production of fuel.
A vehicle’s GHG emissions rate is not a well-defined attribute of the vehicle itself. Although it has taken on great familiarity from the voluminous well-to-wheels analyses over the years, the gCO2e/mi metric is an abstraction based on the joint characteristics of an assumed vehicle-fuel system. Unlike fuel economy or vehicle emissions as traditionally regulated, it cannot be measured using repeatable, objective tests of a given vehicle. Fuel lifecycle assumptions must be introduced and these assumptions have a very large impact on the results.
Another rationale for vehicle GHG emissions standards is that they provide a technology-forcing mechanism for alternative vehicle-fuel systems. The belief that alternatives will solve transportation energy problems has long motivated policies to promote alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), which fuel lifecycle analyses suggest are capable of deep reductions in emissions. Although numerous federal and state AFV and ZEV mandates and programs have been pursued over the years, none have had a measurably transformative impact (McNutt & Rodgers 2004). Nevertheless, hope springs eternal for policies that seek to change the car in order to change the fuel, as seen in the current enthusiasm for plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt. Vehicle GHG standards expand this paradigm, embedding assumptions about the promise of alternative fuels (whether liquid, gaseous or electricity) in standards that regulate vehicles.
Restrictions are key – undifferentiated subsidies create massive environmental losses that can only be solved by federal restrictions
Stephen P. Holland et al., Associate Professor, Department of Economics Bryan School of Business and Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Erin T. Mansur, Revers Professor of Business Administration, Dartmouth, Nick Muller, Associate Professor of Economics at Middlebury College, Andrew J. Yates, Department of Economics and Curriculum for the Environment and Ecology University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2015, Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles?, NBER Working Paper 21291
There are two factors that motivate our exploration of the ex ante claims of environmental
broad interest to economists, policymakers, consumers, and the environmental community.
LCA key to EV tech development – reduces emissions and guides policy innovation
Alexandra B. Klass, Distinguished McKnight University Professor, University of Minnesota Law School, and Andrew Heiring, J.D. Candidate, University of Minnesota Law School, 2016, Life Cycle Analysis and Transportation Energy, University of Minnesota Law School Legal Studies Research Paper Series Research Paper No. 16-20
The life cycle analysis studies discussed above reveal that despite the complete lack of tailpipe
particular fuel or vehicle but instead for a new transportation energy model entirely.