The United States federal government should substantially increase restrictions on coal plants through performance standards for carbon capture and sequestration and expedite the approval and licensing of CCS projects in the United States.
Coal is essential to Chinese energy security – balancing between domestic pressure and increases in demand is key
Grace Guo, Asia policy researcher, The Diplomat, 2/17/17, Why is Asia Returning to Coal? thediplomat.com/2017/02/why-is-asia-returning-to-coal/
Just a few short years ago, few would have dared to predict that coal
have little in common with the proverbial smokestacks of the 1950s and 1960s.
Increasing urban energy demand is the key driver of energy insecurity and SCS conflict – other low carbon sources don’t solve and US cooperation is key
Sagatom Saha, research associate for energy and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 12/1/16, Energy Demands Increasingly Shape China’s Behavior in the South China Sea, World Politics review
Already the world’s largest energy consumer, China will only need more in the coming
. The next administration does not need to oppose this initiative on principle.
Only large-scale deployment in the US produces sufficient cooperation
Yang, CCS Team Lead in the World Resource Institute’s Climate Program, ‘16
(Xiaoliang, “U.S.-China Clean Energy Collaboration: Lessons from the Advanced Coal Technology Consortium,” March, http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/US_China_Clean_Energy_Collaboration_lessons_from_the_Advanced_Coal_Technology_Consortium_1.pdf)
Without sufficient participation from the private sector, ACTC clearly cannot achieve large-scale
and storage; and a demonstration of using captured CO2 to cultivate microalgae.
Finding a near-term replacement for climate cooperation is creates a durable constraint on crises
Luft, Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, ‘1/10/17
(Gal, “A New Way to Hold the U.S.-China Relationship Together,” Foreign Policy)
Thee Trump presidency hasn’t even begun, and the U.S.-China relationship
more resilient in the face of the many challenges that will undoubtedly come.
That escalates to nuclear conflict – doctrinal incentives on both sides in addition to the politicization of disputes create unique domestic incentives for escalation
Joshua Rovner, John Goodwin Tower Professor of International Politics and National Security at Southern Methodist University, serves as Director of Studies at the Tower Center for Political Studies, 2/28/17, Two kinds of catastrophe: nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia, Journal of Strategic Studies
This clash of great power interests has led to concerns that a US–China
stronger state can simply execute its plan in order to defeat the enemy.
Other approaches fail
Jacqueline Koch, Pacific Energy Forum, Can Any Tech Stop Asia’s Coal Future? April 30, 2014, thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/can-any-tech-stop-asias-coal-future
In principle, there are only three ways to reduce CO2 from coal-based
CCS is a viable option, why has it not gained greater traction?
CCS is key to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations – regulatory forcing key
Brad Crabtree, Vice President, Fossil Energy, Great Planes Institute, 2016, State and Federal Policy Drivers for Growing America’s Carbon Capture and CO2-EOR Industry, http://www.betterenergy.org/EORpolicy
Oil Production and Carbon Management Potential of CO2-EOR CO2-EOR has the
deployment of carbon capture at power plants and industrial facilities across the country.
Tight well pressure creates a capacity constraint on existing well production – prevents efficient responsiveness to oil prices
Anderson et al., Michigan State University and NBER, November, ‘16
(Soren T., Ryan Kellogg, University of Chicago and NBER, Stephen W. Salant, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, and Resources for the Future, “Hotelling Under Pressure,” http://home.uchicago.edu/~kelloggr/Papers/HotellingPressure_161127_JPE4.pdf)
We begin by establishing two core empirical facts, using data on oil production and
Texas smoothly declines over time and does not respond to oil price shocks.
US tight oil production key to global price regulation – solving capacity problems key
Lane, Co-Director of the Geoengineering Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Executive Director of the Climate Policy Center, Vice President for Research at CSX Corporation, Vice President for Policy at the Association of American Railroads, and he founded the consulting firm Policy Services, ‘15
(Lee, “Oil and World Power,” December 22, https://hudson.org/research/12085-oil-and-world-power)
The production of tight oil in the United States lessens the risk of economic harm
in the short run, their capacity to surge production would be minor.
EOR is key to tight oil reservoirs – declining productivity and lower permeability
Zuloaga-Molero, Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, ‘16
(Pavel, “Simulation Study of CO2-EOR in Tight Oil Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Geometries,: Scientific Reports 6, Article number: 33445)
Tight oil reservoirs are typically characterized by low porosity (<10%) and low permeability
be taken into account correctly when building a numerical compositional model12,13.
The real price of oil will remain between 40 and 60 dollars – OPEC and US create a goldilocks floor and ceiling
Brian Singer, CFA, Partner, Head of the Dynamic Allocation Strategies Team and Portfolio Manager, 2/8/17, Our Outlook on Oil Prices, https://blog.williamblairfunds.com/brian-singer/our-outlook-on-oil-prices/
We believe the current equilibrium price (fair value) for oil is around $
sense of their willingness to cheat on their production as we go forward.
Price volatility is the largest risk to the market – quick demand changes and drastic innovation mean we need to be able to ramp production up or down as necessary
McNally, Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy @ Columbia, founder and President of The Rapidan Group, served as the top international and domestic energy adviser on the White House staff, holding the posts of Special Assistant to the President on the National Economic Council and, in 2003, Senior Director for International Energy on the National Security Council, ‘17
(Robert, Crude Volatility, Columbia University Press, Epilogue)
Around 2008 we exited over seven consecutive decades of publicprivate production control and entered a
drive officials to attempt to intervene for the sake of oil price stability.
Efficient and flexible shale production is sufficient to create a self-adjusting and stable market – OPEC fails as a swing producer which means US control of sufficient swing CAPACITY is essential to stabilize prices
McNally, Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy @ Columbia, founder and President of The Rapidan Group, erved as the top international and domestic energy adviser on the White House staff, holding the posts of Special Assistant to the President on the National Economic Council and, in 2003, Senior Director for International Energy on the National Security Council, ‘17
(Robert, Crude Volatility, Columbia University Press, Epilogue)
Genuine market management requires that one or more producers stand ready and able—over
enough to keep oil prices reasonably stable through the course of multiyear cycles.
Creating a stable range of prices is key to prevent Russian collapse on the low end and expansion on the high end – preventing upward volatility is key to check adventurism
Enrico Colombatto is a professor of economics at the University of Turin, Italy. He is also director of research at the Institut de Recherches Economiques et Fiscales (IREF), Austrian Center, July 6, 2016, “Oil prices: headed for a Goldilocks scenario?”, http://www.austriancenter.com/2016/07/06/oil-prices-headed-for-a-goldilocks-scenario/
After getting burned for years, many economists are reluctant to make predictions about oil
investors, because they make it easier to plan for the long term.
World War 3
John Schindler, security expert and former National Security Agency analyst and counterintelligence officer, Navy officer and a War College professor, 2/11/16, Mounting Evidence Putin Will Ignite WWIII, http://observer.com/2016/02/mounting-evidence-putin-will-ignite-wwiii/
The Yom Kippur War of October 1973, when the United States and the Soviet
heads may prevail, and all sensible people should hope they do here.
Performance standards are key to cost-reduction, certainty, and adoption – sole reliance on subsidies is bad
Herzog, Senior Research Engineer at the MIT Energy Initiative, awarded the 2010 Greenman Award by the IEAGHG, ‘16
(Howard, “Lessons Learned from CCS Demonstration and Large Pilot Projects,” May, MIT Energy Initiative
Regulatory drivers are critical to creating markets for CCS.
more balanced, such as a program like the CCPI in the US.
Fed key to legal certainty – sequestration on state land is vulnerable to suits which create a permanent chilling effect on widespread investment
Thomas Brugato, Harvard Law School, 2011, The Property Problem: A Survey of Federal Options for Facilitating Acquisition of Carbon Sequestration Repositories, 29 Va. Envtl. L.J. 30
Legal Hurdles Facing Implementation Of CCS
There are a wide variety of
) liability if the CO<2> migrates onto that landowner’s property.
CCS is feasible – answers every warrant – prefer quals
Burger et al., J.D., executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University, won the Penny Pether Award for Law Scholarship, and Jessica Wentz, Staff Attorney and Associate Research Scholar, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, writing on behalf of Amici, … December, ‘16
(Michael, Brief for Amici Curiae Carbon Capture and Storage Scientists in Support of Respondents, in State of North Dakota et al. v. EPA, December 21, No. 15-01381, *language modified)
There is ample evidence to support EPA’s determination that CCS is an adequately demonstrated system
Porphyrins for Catalytic CO2 Reduction in Water, 349 Science 1208 (2015).